Hegseth impeached and removed by... Odds
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 2% | +4344 | ▼ 24 |
| March 31, 2027 | 27% | +277 | ▼ 10 |
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Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pete Hegseth is impeached and removed from the office of United States Secretary of War (also referred to as the Secretary of Defense) by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Impeachment means the U.S. House of Representatives approves one or more articles of impeachment against Pete Hegseth. Removal means the U.S. Senate votes to convict Pete Hegseth on one or more articles of impeachment by the two-thirds vote required under the U.S. Constitution, as announced by the presiding officer of the Senate. The conviction will be considered to occur at the time of that announcement. Whip counts, statements of intended votes, and partial vote tallies will not qualify. This market will resolve to “Yes” upon a qualifying conviction, regardless of when the Senate pronounces judgment, whether it votes on disqualification from future office, whether Pete Hegseth vacates the office, or any legal challenge to the conviction. Impeachment without a Senate conviction will not qualify. An acquittal or dismissal of articles of impeachment will not, on its own, resolve this market. If Pete Hegseth formally leaves the office of Secretary of War for any reason before a qualifying conviction, including by resignation or dismissal, this market will immediately resolve to “No”. An announcement of a future resignation does not count as leaving office. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Congress, including Senate roll call votes; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Apr 1, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Hegseth impeached and removed by...?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.