Will the 2026 F1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix take place Odds
Polymarket traders give “Yes” a 57% chance (Kalshi: 47%).
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 57% | -133 | ▼ 5 | 47% |
| No | 43% | +133 | ▲ 5 | — |
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Price history
On Kalshi
The same question also trades on Kalshi. Check the resolution rules before comparing prices: small wording differences change what pays out.
Resolution rules
The 2026 Formula 1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix is currently scheduled to take place at Yas Marina Circuit in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, on December 6, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 2026 F1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix race takes place in the Emirate of Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, during the 2026 Formula One World Championship. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no such race has taken place in the Emirate of Abu Dhabi by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No", regardless of whether the 2026 FIA Formula One World Championship has been completed. A postponement, rescheduling or change of start time will not affect this market's resolution, so long as the race takes place in the Emirate of Abu Dhabi by March 31, 2027 11:59 PM ET. A change of circuit within the Emirate of Abu Dhabi will not affect this market's resolution. A race held in the Emirate of Abu Dhabi as part of the 2026 FIA Formula One World Championship will count regardless of the official name of the event. If the race is cancelled, or relocated to a venue outside the Emirate of Abu Dhabi (including elsewhere in the United Arab Emirates), this market will resolve to "No". The race will be considered to have taken place if the Grand Prix race officially starts, regardless of whether the full scheduled race distance is completed or full points are awarded. Practice, Qualifying and Sprint sessions will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Formula 1 and the FIA, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
What are the odds of "Will the 2026 F1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix take place"?
As of Nov 8, 7:30 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price Yes at 57%, about -133 in American odds. On Kalshi the same outcome trades at 47%. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Jan 1, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Will the 2026 F1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix take place?
This market trades on Polymarket and a matching market trades on Kalshi. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.