European Central Bank rate decision in December Odds · Dec 17, 2026 meeting
Kalshi traders give Hike 1-25bps a 84% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hike 1-25bps | 84% | -506 | ▲ 2 |
| Maintain current rate | 16% | +545 | — |
| Cut more than 25bps | 1% | +9900 | — |
| Cut 1-25bps | 1% | +9900 | — |
| Hike more than 25bps | 1% | +9900 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
If the European Central Bank takes the action of Cut more than 25bps at December ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in European Central Bank rate decision in December?
As of Nov 8, 7:30 AM EST, traders on Kalshi price Hike 1-25bps at 84%, about -506 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Kalshi lists Dec 17, 2026 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on European Central Bank rate decision in December?
This market trades on Kalshi. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.