Core PCE YoY - October 2026 Odds
Polymarket traders give 3.3% a 31% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.3% | 31% | +223 | ▲ 3 |
| 3.1% | 27% | +277 | ▲ 11 |
| 3.2% | 24% | +317 | ▼ 13 |
| 3.0% | 7% | +1261 | ▼ 8 |
| 2.9% | 5% | +2122 | ▼ 2 |
| 3.4%+ | 2% | +5782 | — |
| ≤2.8% | 1% | +8233 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
This is a market about percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending October 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending in October 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report. The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for October 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on November 25, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 3.7%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure (the PCE price index excluding food and energy), not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure. If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in Core PCE YoY - October 2026?
As of Nov 8, 6:00 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price 3.3% at 31%, about +223 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Nov 25, 2026 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Core PCE YoY - October 2026?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.