Core CPI YoY - October 2026 Odds
Polymarket traders give 2.6% a 88% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.6% | 88% | -733 | ▼ 2 |
| 2.7% | 9% | +987 | ▲ 2 |
| 2.5% | 3% | +3604 | — |
| 2.4% | <1% | +28471 | ▼ 1 |
| 2.9% | <1% | +28471 | — |
| 2.8% | <1% | +39900 | — |
| 2.3% | <1% | +49900 | — |
| ≤2.2% | <1% | +66567 | — |
| 3.0% | <1% | +66567 | — |
| ≥3.1% | <1% | +66567 | — |
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Price history
On Kalshi
The same question also trades on Kalshi. Check the resolution rules before comparing prices: small wording differences change what pays out.
Resolution rules
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending October 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in October 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for October 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on November 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure (the all items index excluding food and energy), not the headline all items CPI figure. If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in Core CPI YoY - October 2026?
As of Nov 8, 6:00 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price 2.6% at 88%, about -733 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Nov 11, 2026 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Core CPI YoY - October 2026?
This market trades on Polymarket and a matching market trades on Kalshi. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.