China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q4 2026 Odds
Polymarket traders give 4.6-4.9% a 52% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4.6-4.9% | 52% | -108 | — |
| 4.3-4.6% | 46% | +117 | — |
| 4.9-5.2% | 4% | +2757 | — |
| 4.0-4.3% | 1% | +8233 | — |
| 5.2-5.5% | <1% | +15285 | — |
| <3.4% | <1% | +199900 | — |
| 3.4-3.7% | <1% | +199900 | — |
| 3.7-4.0% | <1% | +199900 | — |
| 5.5%+ | <1% | +199900 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled for some time in January 2027. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q4 2026?
As of Nov 8, 7:30 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price 4.6-4.9% at 52%, about -108 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Feb 1, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q4 2026?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.