Best Chinese AI Company end of January Odds
Polymarket traders give Alibaba a 34% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alibaba | 34% | +194 | ▲ 2 |
| Xiaomi | 25% | +308 | ▼ 7 |
| Z.ai | 19% | +426 | ▲ 5 |
| Moonshot | 18% | +456 | ▲ 2 |
| Baidu | 4% | +2147 | — |
| ByteDance | 4% | +2640 | — |
| Tencent | 4% | +2640 | — |
| DeepSeek | 4% | +2678 | — |
| Meituan | 3% | +3126 | — |
| StepFun | 3% | +3409 | ▼ 1 |
| MiniMax | 2% | +4445 | ▼ 1 |
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Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank among primarily Chinese companies, based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on January 31, 2027, 12:00 PM ET. Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Qualifying Chinese Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in Best Chinese AI Company end of January?
As of Nov 11, 5:30 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price Alibaba at 34%, about +194 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Feb 1, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Best Chinese AI Company end of January?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.