Annual Return: S&P 500 Total Return Vs. Gold Odds · 2026
Kalshi traders give S&P 500 Total Return Index a 85% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 Total Return Index | 85% | -567 | ▼ 2 |
| Gold | 15% | +567 | ▲ 2 |
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Price history
Resolution rules
If S&P 500 Total Return Index performs above Gold for the period of 2026 by 0.001% then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in Annual Return: S&P 500 Total Return Vs. Gold?
As of Nov 8, 7:30 AM EST, traders on Kalshi price S&P 500 Total Return Index at 85%, about -567 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Kalshi lists Jan 1, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Annual Return: S&P 500 Total Return Vs. Gold?
This market trades on Kalshi. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.