Amelia Earhart’s plane found by December 31, 2026 Odds
Polymarket traders give No a 96% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4% | +2567 | — |
| No | 96% | -2567 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is publicly confirmed that the “Taraia Object,” or any other object, is wreckage or a component of the Lockheed Electra 10E that disappeared with Amelia Earhart and Fred Noonan on July 2, 1937, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of resolving this market, "confirmed" means an official public announcement by the research team, institution, or government body involved in the investigation or its authorized representative, definitively confirming the identity of the object as wreckage or a component of that specific aircraft, based on physical inspection, imaging, or recovered material evidence. The evidence must support identification as Earhart’s specific aircraft; resemblance to an aircraft or identification as a Lockheed Electra alone is insufficient. Independent corroboration is not required. Confirmation of an individual component qualifies; locating or recovering the complete aircraft is not required. Resolution turns on the date of the public confirmation, regardless of when the object was located or inspected. Simply locating or investigating an object, or preliminary statements that it is merely "consistent with" or "could be" Earhart's plane, will not qualify as "confirmed". The primary resolution sources will be official announcements by the research team, institution, or government body involved in the investigation; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to establish that a qualifying confirmation was publicly issued. Reporting that merely repeats tentative or speculative claims will not qualify.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
What are the odds of "Amelia Earhart’s plane found by December 31, 2026"?
As of Nov 8, 7:30 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price No at 96%, about -2567 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Jan 1, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Amelia Earhart’s plane found by December 31, 2026?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.