#3 AI lab by OpenRouter market share week of October 12 Odds
This market has resolved: OpenAI. Final prices are below.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| OpenAI ✓ | 100% | — | ▲ 2 |
| DeepSeek | 0% | — | — |
| Tencent | 0% | — | — |
| Z.ai | 0% | — | ▼ 1 |
| Xiaomi | 0% | — | — |
| Nvidia | 0% | — | — |
| 0% | — | — | |
| Anthropic | 0% | — | — |
| MiniMax | 0% | — | — |
| Meta | 0% | — | — |
| Qwen | 0% | — | — |
| xAI | 0% | — | — |
| AI lab F | 0% | — | — |
| AI lab G | 0% | — | — |
| Other | 0% | — | — |
Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the AI lab with the third highest market share on OpenRouter for the week of October 12 to October 18, 2026. A lab's market share is the percentage displayed for that lab in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage, for the week of October 12 to October 18, 2026. The "stealth" and "others" groupings are not labs; if either occupies the relevant rank, it will be skipped and the next ranked lab will be used. This market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of October 12 to October 18, 2026 once the figures for the week of October 19, 2026 are first displayed. If the figures for the week of October 19, 2026 have not been displayed by 11:59 PM ET on October 23, 2026, this market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of October 12 to October 18, 2026 at that time. If no data is available for the week of October 12 to October 18, 2026 at that time, this market will resolve to "Other". The AI labs will be primarily ranked by the percentage displayed in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage. If two or more labs are tied on market share in percentage terms, the lab with the larger token count displayed in the Absolute view of the chart will be ranked higher. If a tie still remains, the lab whose listed name comes first alphabetically will be ranked higher. This market will resolve to the AI lab ranked 3rd after applying this ranking. The resolution source for this market is https://openrouter.ai/rankings.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Oct 20, 2026 as the end date; this market has closed.
Where can I trade on #3 AI lab by OpenRouter market share week of October 12?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.