2026 World GDP Growth Odds
Polymarket traders give 3.1% a 34% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.1% | 34% | +195 | ▲ 3 |
| 3.2% | 32% | +208 | ▼ 6 |
| 3.0% | 11% | +781 | ▼ 3 |
| 3.3% | 6% | +1475 | ▼ 1 |
| 3.6% | 3% | +3822 | — |
| 3.4% | 3% | +3900 | — |
| ≤2.9% | 2% | +4067 | ▼ 0 |
| 3.5% | <1% | +15285 | — |
| 3.7%+ | <1% | +28471 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027. The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen. If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in 2026 World GDP Growth?
As of Nov 8, 6:00 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price 3.1% at 34%, about +195 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists May 1, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on 2026 World GDP Growth?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.