Who will leave the Trump administration before Jul 2027 Odds · Before Jul 1, 2027
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kash Patel | 63% | -170 | ▲ 5 |
| Pete Hegseth | 67% | -199 | — |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 64% | -174 | ▼ 10 |
| Peter Navarro | 21% | +376 | — |
| Howard Lutnick | 77% | -326 | ▼ 3 |
| Scott Bessent | 31% | +228 | ▼ 1 |
| Jamieson Greer | 15% | +567 | — |
| Tom Homan | 20% | +400 | — |
| Marco Rubio | 47% | +113 | ▼ 4 |
| Lee Zeldin | 12% | +733 | — |
| Sean Duffy | 51% | -104 | ▲ 9 |
| Linda McMahon | 19% | +426 | — |
| Russell Vought | 14% | +614 | — |
| Stephen Miller | 29% | +251 | — |
| Steve Witkoff | 30% | +233 | — |
| Mike Huckabee | 21% | +376 | — |
| Mehmet Oz | 16% | +545 | — |
| Brendan Carr | 12% | +770 | — |
| Bill Pulte | 16% | +525 | — |
| Brooke Rollins | 22% | +365 | — |
| Chris Wright | 17% | +488 | — |
| Scott Turner | 14% | +614 | — |
| Doug Burgum | 31% | +223 | — |
| Doug Collins | 15% | +567 | — |
| Kelly Loeffler | 19% | +426 | — |
| John Ratcliffe | 13% | +669 | — |
| Rodney Scott | 14% | +614 | — |
| Steven Cheung | 22% | +355 | — |
| Kevin Hassett | 85% | -567 | ▲ 2 |
| Mike Waltz | 16% | +525 | — |
| Brad Cooper | 21% | +388 | — |
| Dan Caine | 16% | +525 | — |
| Christopher Landau | 18% | +456 | — |
| Todd Blanche | 22% | +365 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
If Kash Patel leaves (or announces they will leave) the Trump administration after Issuance and before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Kalshi lists Jul 1, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
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