When will the nationwide ground stop be lifted Odds
Polymarket traders give Nov 13, 8–9 PM a >99% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 13, 8–9 PM | >99% | -22122 | — |
| Nov 14, 1–2 AM | <1% | +19900 | — |
| Nov 14, 2–3 AM | <1% | +19900 | — |
| Nov 14, 3–4 AM | <1% | +19900 | — |
| Nov 14, 4–5 AM | <1% | +19900 | — |
| Nov 14, 8–9 AM | <1% | +19900 | — |
| Nov 14, 9–10 AM | <1% | +19900 | — |
| Nov 13, 9–10 PM | <1% | +22122 | — |
| Nov 13, 11 PM – Nov 14, 12 AM | <1% | +22122 | — |
| Nov 14, 5–6 AM | <1% | +22122 | — |
| Nov 14, 6–7 AM | <1% | +22122 | — |
| Nov 14, 7–8 AM | <1% | +22122 | — |
| Nov 14, 10–11 AM | <1% | +22122 | — |
| Nov 14, 11 AM–12 PM | <1% | +22122 | — |
| Nov 14, 12 PM or later | <1% | +22122 | — |
| Nov 14, 12–1 AM | <1% | +33233 | — |
| Nov 13, 10–11 PM | <1% | +199900 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
The FAA issued a nationwide ground stop for flights departing U.S. airports on November 13, 2026 (see: https://www.cnn.com/2026/11/13/us/faa-nationwide-ground-stop). This market will resolve according to the time, in Eastern Time (ET), at which the FAA, the U.S. Department of Transportation, or their authorized representatives officially announce that this nationwide ground stop is no longer in effect. If such an announcement is made before November 14, 2026, 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to the bracket that contains the time of that announcement. "Nov 13, before 7 PM" covers any qualifying announcement made before 7:00 PM ET on November 13, 2026, including before this market's creation. If no qualifying announcement is made before November 14, 2026, 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Nov 14, 12 PM or later". If the time of the announcement falls exactly between two brackets (e.g. 8:00 PM ET), then this market will resolve to the later time bracket. A qualifying announcement must communicate that the nationwide (all-airports) ground stop is cancelled or otherwise no longer in effect, including where it is replaced by narrower ground stops or other traffic management initiatives at individual airports or regions. Announcements that the ground stop is lifted for, or does not affect, specific airports, regions, or flights while the nationwide ground stop remains in effect will not count. An announcement that the ground stop will end at a future time will not qualify until its effective time; in that case, the effective time will be used to determine the resolution bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the FAA & the Department of Transportation; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in When will the nationwide ground stop be lifted?
As of Nov 15, 10:30 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price Nov 13, 8–9 PM at >99%, about -22122 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Nov 14, 2026 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on When will the nationwide ground stop be lifted?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.