What will Palmer Luckey say during NYT DealBook Summit Odds · Palmer Luckey - 2026 New York Times DealBook Summit originally scheduled for November 18, 2026
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iran / Iranian | 44% | +127 | — |
| Drone | 68% | -213 | — |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | 57% | -133 | ▲ 1 |
| China / Chinese | 80% | -388 | ▲ 11 |
| Taiwan | 43% | +133 | — |
| Autonomous / Autonomy | 59% | -144 | ▼ 7 |
| Trump (3+ times) | 46% | +117 | — |
| Pentagon | 35% | +186 | — |
| Manufacture / Manufacturing | 73% | -270 | ▲ 7 |
| Lattice | 71% | -245 | — |
| Arsenal | 30% | +233 | ▼ 8 |
| Ukraine / Ukrainian | 64% | -178 | — |
| Submarine | 68% | -213 | — |
| Oculus | 52% | -108 | ▲ 8 |
| Meta | 33% | +203 | — |
| Meridian | 47% | +113 | — |
| IPO | 26% | +285 | ▲ 1 |
| Event does not qualify | 1% | +9900 | — |
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Resolution rules
If Palmer Luckey says Iran / Iranian as part of 2026 New York Times DealBook Summit originally scheduled for November 18, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Kalshi lists Dec 2, 2026 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
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