What will Anthropic's frontier output token price hit in 2026 Odds
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| ↑ $75 | 42% | +141 | ▼ 2 |
| ↑ $50 | 48% | +108 | ▼ 13 |
| ↓ $15 | 30% | +239 | ▲ 1 |
| ↓ $10 | 32% | +217 | ▼ 0 |
We may earn a commission if you sign up or trade through links to venues. It never changes the prices or rankings we show. 18+ (21+ where required). Only trade where prediction markets are legal for you. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER. How we make money
Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the standard output token price of Anthropic's frontier model is equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the price specified in the title, in USD per million tokens. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Anthropic's frontier model means the model with the highest score in the "Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index" (AAII) column of the model leaderboard at https://artificialanalysis.ai/leaderboards/models among entries listing Anthropic as the "Creator". The "Status" filter must be set to "Current", with "Weights", "Size", "Price", and "Reasoning" set to "All". Only models with a standard output token price listed on Anthropic's official API pricing page will be considered. Only models that are publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups, will be considered; models available only through a closed beta or any form of private or limited access will not qualify. Where the leaderboard lists one model under several reasoning-effort or configuration settings, those entries count as the same model and its highest displayed score applies. If two or more qualifying models share the highest displayed score, all respective standard output token prices of those models will be considered. Scores will be taken as displayed under the index, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data published elsewhere. The relevant price is the “Base tokens” output price on Anthropic’s official API pricing page for default global inference, at the rate applicable to requests that do not trigger a long-context surcharge. Prices for batch, fast mode, cached, or US-only inference and other data-residency variants will not be considered. Any promotional, temporary, or volume-discount pricing will not be used for resolution; only the standard listed API price applies. A price qualifies only while the model meets the frontier definition above, after market creation. A later leaderboard appearance or score change will not cause an earlier price to qualify. The resolution sources for this market will be the Artificial Analysis leaderboard for model scores and Anthropic's official API pricing page (https://platform.claude.com/docs/en/about-claude/pricing) for prices. Official announcements and archived copies of these pages may be used to confirm the scores, prices, and when they were displayed; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Jan 1, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on What will Anthropic's frontier output token price hit in 2026?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.