Sean Duffy out as Secretary of Transportation Odds · Before Jan 2029
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Dec 1, 2026 | 15% | +567 | ▲ 15 |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 26% | +285 | ▲ 30 |
| Before Apr 1, 2027 | 50% | -100 | ▲ 50 |
| Before Jul 1, 2027 | 0% | — | — |
| Before Oct 1, 2027 | 69% | -223 | ▲ 69 |
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 63% | -170 | ▲ 63 |
| Before Jul 1, 2028 | 70% | -233 | ▲ 73 |
| Before Jan 1, 2029 | 80% | -400 | — |
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Price history
On Polymarket
The same question also trades on Polymarket. Check the resolution rules before comparing prices: small wording differences change what pays out.
Resolution rules
If Sean Duffy leaves (or announces he will leave) as Secretary of Transportation before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Kalshi lists Dec 8, 2026 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Sean Duffy out as Secretary of Transportation?
This market trades on Kalshi and a matching market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.