Pedro Sánchez announced resignation or removal as PSOE leader by December 31, 2026 Odds
Polymarket traders give No a 77% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 24% | +326 | ▲ 1 |
| No | 77% | -326 | ▼ 1 |
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Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pedro Sánchez’s departure through resignation or removal as Secretary-General of the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The departure will be considered to be announced when Pedro Sánchez, PSOE, or their authorized representatives publicly and definitively announce that Sánchez has resigned or been removed, or will resign or be removed, as Secretary-General of PSOE. Such an announcement will qualify regardless of when the specified person formally leaves the position; resignation includes retiring or stepping down as Secretary-General, including to take another role at PSOE, and removal includes dismissal or termination under PSOE’s statutes, including by decision of the Federal Committee, the dissolution of the Federal Executive Commission, or the election of another Secretary-General through a primary or Federal Congress. Only announcements which are framed as announcing a departure through resignation or removal intended to be effective within 18 months of the date of the announcement will qualify (e.g., neither “I will leave office in 2 years,” nor “I will not be in office forever,” would qualify). Announcements of temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person’s duties in the specified position do not qualify. The following do not qualify as public and definitive announcements: statements that the specified person is considering or open to departing; conditional statements that the specified person will depart only if certain conditions are met; the announcement of an offer of resignation that requires acceptance and remains pending or has been refused; media reports that the specified person plans to depart; statements made in sarcasm or jest; and statements by persons other than the specified person, the relevant authority governing the specified position, or their respective authorized representatives. If the specified person holds the specified position on a predefined term with a scheduled end date, only announcements that they will depart the position prior to the scheduled end of their term qualify. If the specified person formally ceases to hold the specified position before the end of their scheduled term through such a departure without a qualifying announcement, the market will resolve to “Yes” if a qualifying resignation or removal occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. If the specified person ceases to hold the specified position by any other means, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Pedro Sánchez and PSOE; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
What are the odds of "Pedro Sánchez announced resignation or removal as PSOE leader by December 31, 2026"?
As of Nov 15, 10:30 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price No at 77%, about -326 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Jan 1, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Pedro Sánchez announced resignation or removal as PSOE leader by December 31, 2026?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.