Peak daily ship traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of November 16 Odds
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28+ | 91% | -953 | ▲ 36 |
| 30+ | 59% | -141 | ▼ 2 |
| 32+ | 53% | -113 | ▼ 19 |
| 34+ | 59% | -141 | ▼ 5 |
| 36+ | 53% | -111 | ▼ 0 |
| 38+ | 54% | -117 | ▼ 18 |
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Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the number of transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on any single date from November 16, 2026 to November 22, 2026, according to IMF PortWatch, is at least the number specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily figures are the total transit calls by container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships that IMF PortWatch publishes for each date. This market will resolve once IMF PortWatch has published data for every date in the period. Revisions made after that point will not be considered, unless subject to the data integrity clause below. If any data is still unpublished 14 calendar days after the period’s final date, this market will resolve on the most recent data published at that time. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the Transit Calls data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Nov 23, 2026 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Peak daily ship traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of November 16?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.