November 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record Odds
Polymarket traders give 1st hottest a 94% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st hottest | 94% | -1567 | — |
| 2nd hottest | 5% | +1752 | — |
| 3rd hottest | <1% | +199900 | — |
| 4th or lower | <1% | +199900 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for November 2026 versus the data points available for all other Novembers on record. Note: If November 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for November 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in November 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?
As of Nov 8, 7:30 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price 1st hottest at 94%, about -1567 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Dec 29, 2026 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on November 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.