AZ-08 House winner? (2028): Republican party 91% ▲ 91AZ-09 House winner? (2028): Republican party 82% ▲ 82ACC Men's U19 Asia Cup: India Under-19s vs P… 4% ▼ 46Big Bash League, Women: Sydney Sixers vs Syd… 9% ▼ 41Abu Dhabi T10 League: United Tigers vs Arabi… 9% ▼ 41Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (… 91% ▲ 38College Football Playoff Qualifiers: Ohio St. 14% ▼ 37Major airlines suspend Ben Gurion flights by… 26% ▼ 29Brazilian Grand Prix: Driver Winner: Max Ver… 13% ▼ 23Pete Hegseth impeached by...: March 31, 2027 77% ▲ 21How much will Anthropic raise in its IPO: $7… 19% ▼ 21NCAA Football: 2026 Heisman Award Winner: CJ… 32% ▲ 19Khamenei # posts November 3 - November 10, 2… 85% ▲ 18Heisman Trophy Winner: CJ Carr 34% ▲ 18Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (11/2 … 45% ▼ 18How much will Anthropic raise in its IPO: $6… 38% ▲ 17NCAA Football: 2026 Heisman Award Winner: Je… 21% ▼ 17Next leader out of power before 2027: Netany… 43% ▲ 17Test Match: Afghanistan vs Zimbabwe: Draw 83% ▲ 17What will Trump say during 60 Minutes: Ukraine 69% ▼ 16Jonathan Taylor Next Team: Indianapolis 41% ▲ 16Jonathan Taylor Next Team: New York G 31% ▼ 16Heisman Trophy Winner: Jeremiah Smith 23% ▼ 16College Football Playoff Qualifiers: Texas 74% ▲ 16AZ-08 House winner? (2028): Republican party 91% ▲ 91AZ-09 House winner? (2028): Republican party 82% ▲ 82ACC Men's U19 Asia Cup: India Under-19s vs P… 4% ▼ 46Big Bash League, Women: Sydney Sixers vs Syd… 9% ▼ 41Abu Dhabi T10 League: United Tigers vs Arabi… 9% ▼ 41Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (… 91% ▲ 38College Football Playoff Qualifiers: Ohio St. 14% ▼ 37Major airlines suspend Ben Gurion flights by… 26% ▼ 29Brazilian Grand Prix: Driver Winner: Max Ver… 13% ▼ 23Pete Hegseth impeached by...: March 31, 2027 77% ▲ 21How much will Anthropic raise in its IPO: $7… 19% ▼ 21NCAA Football: 2026 Heisman Award Winner: CJ… 32% ▲ 19Khamenei # posts November 3 - November 10, 2… 85% ▲ 18Heisman Trophy Winner: CJ Carr 34% ▲ 18Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (11/2 … 45% ▼ 18How much will Anthropic raise in its IPO: $6… 38% ▲ 17NCAA Football: 2026 Heisman Award Winner: Je… 21% ▼ 17Next leader out of power before 2027: Netany… 43% ▲ 17Test Match: Afghanistan vs Zimbabwe: Draw 83% ▲ 17What will Trump say during 60 Minutes: Ukraine 69% ▼ 16Jonathan Taylor Next Team: Indianapolis 41% ▲ 16Jonathan Taylor Next Team: New York G 31% ▼ 16Heisman Trophy Winner: Jeremiah Smith 23% ▼ 16College Football Playoff Qualifiers: Texas 74% ▲ 16

New York City Marathon Men's Open Division Winner Odds · New York City - Nov 1, 2026

This market has resolved: Andreas Almgren. Final prices are below.

Kalshi Volume $29.3K Ended Nov 2, 2026 Updated Nov 8, 7:30 AM EST
OutcomeChanceOdds24h
Andreas Almgren ✓
99% -9900 ▲ 67
Edward Cheserek
64% -178 ▲ 58
Robert Miranda
35% +186 —
JP Flavin
28% +257 —
Alec Baldwin
20% +400 ▲ 18
Jared Ward
18% +456 —
Andrew Colley
18% +456 —
Owen Ritz
18% +456 —
James Nipperess
15% +567 ▲ 14
Deresa Geleta
4% +2400 ▼ 3
Ryan Cutter
4% +2400 ▲ 3
Aidan Troutner
3% +3233 —
JP Trojan
3% +3233 —
Mo Bati
3% +3233 —
Aidan Reed
3% +3233 —
Peter Lynch
2% +4900 —
Patrick Dever
2% +4900 —
Haftu Strintzos
2% +4900 —
Kamohelo Mofolo
2% +4900 ▲ 1
Merga Gemeda
2% +4900 —
Benson Kipruto
1% +9900 ▼ 30
CyBrian Kotut
1% +9900 ▼ 1
Zouhair Talbi
1% +9900 ▼ 2
Abdi Nageeye
1% +9900 —
Geoffrey Kamworor
1% +9900 —
Iliass Aouani
1% +9900 —
Huseydin Mohamed Esa
1% +9900 —
Conner Mantz
1% +9900 ▼ 3
Kengo Suzuki
1% +9900 ▼ 2
Yemaneberhan Crippa
1% +9900 ▼ 18
Ryota Kondo
1% +9900 ▼ 6
Ryan Ford
1% +9900 ▼ 1
Joe Klecker
1% +9900 ▼ 3
Jack Rowe
1% +9900 —
Casey Clinger
1% +9900 —
Sam Chelanga
1% +9900 —
Turner Wiley
1% +9900 —
Joel Reichow
1% +9900 —
Paul Chelimo
1% +9900 —
Stephen Jones
1% +9900 —

Showing the top 40 of 42 outcomes.

Price history

0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Oct 29 Nov 1
Andreas AlmgrenRobert Miranda

Resolution rules

If Benson Kipruto wins the 2026 TCS New York City Marathon Men's Open Division, then the market resolves to Yes.

Source: Kalshi. The venue's rules are final.

FAQ

How are prediction market odds calculated?

Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.

When does this market close?

Kalshi lists Nov 2, 2026 as the end date; this market has closed.

Where can I trade on New York City Marathon Men's Open Division Winner?

This market trades on Kalshi. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.