Measles cases in U.S. by October 31 Odds
This market has resolved: 3700+. Final prices are below.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3700+ ✓ | 100% | — | — |
| 3800+ ✓ | 100% | — | — |
| 3900+ ✓ | 100% | — | ▲ 2 |
| 4000+ ✓ | 100% | — | ▲ 1 |
| 4100+ ✓ | 100% | — | — |
| 4200+ ✓ | 100% | — | — |
| 4300+ ✓ | 100% | — | ▲ 3 |
| 4700+ ✓ | 100% | — | ▲ 8 |
| 4500+ ✓ | 100% | — | — |
| 4800+ ✓ | 100% | — | ▲ 56 |
| 4900+ | 0% | — | ▼ 1 |
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026, according to the CDC case counter by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter 'Total Cases' in 2026 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Nov 1, 2026 as the end date; this market has closed.
Where can I trade on Measles cases in U.S. by October 31?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.