How strong of an earthquake will occur worldwide by October 31 Odds
This market has resolved: 6.5+. Final prices are below.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6.5+ ✓ | 100% | — | — |
| 7.0+ ✓ | 100% | — | ▲ 1 |
| 7.5+ ✓ | 100% | — | ▲ 1 |
| 8.0+ | 0% | — | ▼ 35 |
| 8.5+ | 0% | — | ▼ 2 |
| 9.0+ | 0% | — | ▼ 1 |
Resolution rules
This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude equal to or above the threshold listed in the option's title occurring anywhere in the world, with an origin time between market creation and October 31, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves "No". A qualifying earthquake must be listed by USGS with a preferred magnitude equal to or above the threshold listed in the option's title and listed as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify. If an earthquake with an origin time within this market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after October 31, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after October 31, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point. Revisions to the underlying data, such as the preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after October 31, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after October 31, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered. The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after October 31, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Nov 1, 2026 as the end date; this market has closed.
Where can I trade on How strong of an earthquake will occur worldwide by October 31?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.