How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide October 12 - October 18 Odds
This market has resolved: 9. Final prices are below.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 ✓ | 100% | — | ▲ 63 |
| ≤6 | 0% | — | — |
| 7 | 0% | — | — |
| 8 | 0% | — | — |
| 10 | 0% | — | ▼ 39 |
| 11 | 0% | — | ▼ 19 |
| 12 | 0% | — | ▼ 8 |
| 13 | 0% | — | ▼ 4 |
| more than 13 | 0% | — | ▼ 3 |
Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between October 12, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and October 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data. If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Oct 19, 2026 as the end date; this market has closed.
Where can I trade on How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide October 12 - October 18?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.