Gemini Hydrogen released by... Odds
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| November 30 | 88% | -700 | — |
| December 31 | 91% | -1011 | — |
| January 31 | 97% | -2977 | — |
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Resolution rules
On November 5, 2026, OfficeChai reported that Google was internally testing a Gemini 4 Flash-tier model codenamed "Hydrogen," described as a lighter, faster sibling to Gemini 4 Argon and Gemini 4 Carbon (https://officechai.com/ai/gemini-4-hydrogen/). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google releases "Hydrogen" or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report described above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must be a Google AI model named "Hydrogen" (including variants or successor branding such as Gemini Hydrogen, Gemini 4 Hydrogen, or similar naming) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report by Google or by a consensus of credible reporting. A model released under any other name, including a new Gemini Flash model (e.g., Gemini 4 Flash) or an update to an existing Gemini model (including an update released under that model's existing name or model identifier), will qualify only if it is confirmed by the listed date to be the same model previously codenamed "Hydrogen". Models merely derived from, distilled from, or incorporating improvements from Hydrogen will not qualify unless confirmed to be the same model. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Feb 1, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Gemini Hydrogen released by...?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.