FAA outage attributed to Iran Odds
Polymarket traders give No a >99% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | <1% | +10426 | ▼ 1 |
| No | >99% | -10426 | ▲ 1 |
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Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government officially attributes the November 13, 2026, FAA outage to Iran between market creation and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The FAA outage refers to the equipment and communications outage that led the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to issue a nationwide ground stop on departures from U.S. airports on November 13, 2026. A qualifying attribution is a public statement by an authorized representative of the U.S. federal government acting in an official capacity stating that the outage was carried out, caused, ordered, or directed by the Iranian state, including its armed forces (including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)) or intelligence services, or by persons acting on their instructions. Criminal charges filed by U.S. federal prosecutors alleging that the outage was caused on behalf of the aforementioned Iranian state services will also qualify. Attributions to Iranian proxy or partner groups, such as Hezbollah, will not qualify, unless the statement also states that the Iranian state, as defined above, carried out, ordered, or directed the outage. Statements describing Iranian involvement as suspected, likely, probable, or not ruled out, or stating only that the outage bears the hallmarks of or is consistent with Iranian activity, will not qualify. Statements by anonymous or unnamed officials or by governments of other countries will not qualify on their own. Once a qualifying attribution is made, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of any later retraction, Iranian denial, or the outcome of legal proceedings. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements and publications from the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
What are the odds of "FAA outage attributed to Iran"?
As of Nov 15, 10:30 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price No at >99%, about -10426 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Dec 1, 2026 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on FAA outage attributed to Iran?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.