Will Apple release a new product line before 2028 Odds
Polymarket traders give “Yes” a 69% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 69% | -223 | — |
| No | 31% | +223 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple launches a new product line between market creation and December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "new product line" is an Apple-branded hardware product that establishes a distinct product category based on its functionality and intended use. A new name alone is insufficient, and reuse of a previous product name does not disqualify an otherwise qualifying product. New models, sizes, generations, editions, or renamed versions of an existing product family will not qualify solely because they introduce a new design, form factor, feature, or name. However, a product may qualify if its functionality and intended use establish a distinct product category, even if it shares features, technology, or branding with an existing Apple product. Products Apple has sold before market creation, including HomeView, and subsequent updates to those products will not qualify unless those updates independently meet the criteria for a new product line. For example, the original Apple Vision Pro and HomeView launches constituted new product lines; iPhone Air and AirPods Pro 3 did not. Software, services, accessories (e.g., cases, chargers, keyboards, or Apple Pencil), and Beats-branded products will not qualify. An accessory is hardware whose primary purpose is to support, control, or extend the functionality of another product, rather than perform a distinct primary function of its own. Compatibility with, or a setup requirement involving, another device does not alone make a product an accessory. A product is considered launched when it becomes officially available to public customers, through delivery or physical purchase. The primary resolution source will be official information from Apple, including Apple Newsroom and the Apple Store; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
What are the odds of "Will Apple release a new product line before 2028"?
As of Nov 15, 10:30 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price Yes at 69%, about -223 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Jan 1, 2028 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Will Apple release a new product line before 2028?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.