Total Chess World Championship Tour Pilot Winner Odds · Total Chess World Championship Tour Pilot (2026)
Kalshi traders give Alireza Firouzja a 34% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alireza Firouzja | 34% | +194 | ▲ 11 |
| Fabiano Caruana | 31% | +223 | ▲ 8 |
| Arjun Erigaisi | 23% | +335 | ▲ 13 |
| Maxime Vachier-Lagrave | 14% | +614 | ▼ 3 |
| Hans Moke Niemann | 13% | +669 | ▲ 5 |
| Anish Giri | 5% | +1900 | ▲ 5 |
| Jan-Krzysztof Duda | 5% | +1900 | — |
| Ian Nepomniachtchi | 5% | +1900 | ▼ 9 |
| Haik M. Martirosyan | 3% | +3900 | ▼ 4 |
| Magnus Carlsen | <1% | +19900 | ▼ 8 |
| Wesley So | <1% | +19900 | — |
| Vincent Keymer | <1% | +19900 | — |
| Nodirbek Abdusattorov | <1% | +19900 | — |
| Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu | <1% | +19900 | — |
| Richard Rapport | <1% | +19900 | — |
| Vladislav Artemiev | <1% | +19900 | — |
| Bibisara Assaubayeva | <1% | +19900 | — |
| Vaishali Rameshbabu | <1% | +19900 | — |
| Levon Aronian | <1% | +19900 | ▼ 2 |
| Liem Le | <1% | +19900 | — |
| Jorden van Foreest | <1% | +19900 | ▲ 1 |
| Abhimanyu Mishra | <1% | +19900 | — |
| Shakhriyar Mamedyarov | <1% | +19900 | — |
| Andrew Hong | <1% | +19900 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
If Magnus Carlsen wins the 2026 Total Chess World Championship Tour Pilot chess tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in Total Chess World Championship Tour Pilot Winner?
As of Nov 15, 10:30 AM EST, traders on Kalshi price Alireza Firouzja at 34%, about +194 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Kalshi lists Nov 20, 2026 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Total Chess World Championship Tour Pilot Winner?
This market trades on Kalshi. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.