Next Mythos Model (5.3+) made available by... Odds
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 26% | +285 | ▲ 14 |
| January 31 | 72% | -257 | ▲ 2 |
| February 28 | 77% | -335 | ▲ 6 |
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Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Mythos model (5.3+) is released between market creation and the specified date (ET), as described below. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Mythos" and be designated as version 5.3 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.3 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Mythos 5.1 or Claude Mythos 5.2 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Mythos 6, while models whose name does not include "Mythos" or which retain a version designation below 5.3, such as Claude Mythos 5.2 or Claude Fable 5.2, will not qualify. A qualifying model will be considered released once Anthropic officially announces its release and makes it available to external users, including where access is limited to organizations approved through Anthropic's verification or trusted-access programs (such as the Cyber Verification Program or Project Glasswing), as was the case for Claude Mythos 5.2, released November 9, 2026. General public availability is not required. Internal testing, or access granted only to pre-release testers or evaluators without an official release announcement, will not qualify, and an announcement of future availability will not count until the model is actually available to such users. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Mar 1, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Next Mythos Model (5.3+) made available by...?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.