Next Gemini Hydrogen (4.1+) released by... Odds
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| November 30 | 18% | +456 | ▼ 10 |
| December 15 | 43% | +133 | ▼ 1 |
| December 31 | 49% | +104 | ▼ 14 |
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Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's next Gemini Hydrogen model (4.1+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Gemini" and "Hydrogen" and be designated as version 4.1 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.1 or higher named in the same manner as Gemini 4 Hydrogen would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Gemini 5 Hydrogen, while models whose name does not include "Hydrogen" or which retain a version designation below 4.1, such as Gemini 4 Hydrogen (released November 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, snapshot, or reasoning setting of it, will not qualify. Specialized modality variants, such as image, TTS, or Live models, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Jan 1, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Next Gemini Hydrogen (4.1+) released by...?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.