Next Gemini Carbon (4.1+) released on... Odds
Polymarket traders give No release by December 31 a 70% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| No release by December 31 | 70% | -228 | ▲ 1 |
| November 19 | 4% | +2678 | ▼ 6 |
| December 16 | 3% | +3348 | ▲ 2 |
| November 20 | 3% | +3674 | — |
| November 23 | 3% | +3674 | — |
| December 11 | 3% | +3674 | — |
| November 24 | 2% | +4900 | ▼ 4 |
| November 21 | 2% | +5961 | — |
| December 29 | 2% | +6150 | — |
| November 22 | 2% | +6352 | ▼ 2 |
| December 22 | 1% | +7043 | — |
| December 15 | 1% | +7307 | — |
| December 23 | 1% | +7592 | — |
| December 20 | 1% | +8596 | — |
| November 16 | 1% | +9424 | — |
| November 18 | 1% | +9424 | — |
| November 25 | 1% | +9424 | — |
| November 26 | 1% | +9424 | — |
| November 27 | 1% | +9424 | — |
| December 6 | 1% | +9424 | — |
| December 7 | 1% | +9424 | — |
| December 9 | 1% | +9424 | — |
| December 17 | 1% | +9424 | — |
| December 19 | 1% | +9424 | ▼ 9 |
| December 24 | 1% | +9424 | — |
| December 25 | 1% | +9424 | — |
| December 27 | 1% | +9424 | — |
| December 30 | 1% | +9424 | — |
| December 31 | 1% | +9424 | — |
| December 4 | <1% | +10426 | — |
| December 8 | <1% | +10426 | — |
| December 10 | <1% | +10426 | — |
| December 13 | <1% | +10426 | — |
| December 21 | <1% | +11011 | — |
| December 5 | <1% | +11665 | — |
| December 28 | <1% | +12400 | — |
| November 30 | <1% | +13233 | — |
| November 17 | <1% | +18082 | — |
| December 12 | <1% | +18082 | — |
| November 15 | <1% | +19900 | ▼ 1 |
Showing the top 40 of 48 outcomes.
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Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Carbon model (4.1+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Gemini" and "Carbon" and be designated as version 4.1 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.1 or higher named in the same manner as Gemini 4 Carbon would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Gemini 5 Carbon, while models whose name does not include "Carbon" or which retain a version designation below 4.1, such as Gemini 4 Carbon (released November 10, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, snapshot, or reasoning setting of it, will not qualify. Specialized modality variants, such as image, TTS, or Live models, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in Next Gemini Carbon (4.1+) released on...?
As of Nov 15, 10:30 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price No release by December 31 at 70%, about -228 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Jan 1, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Next Gemini Carbon (4.1+) released on...?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.