Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on November 16 Odds
Polymarket traders give 22°C a 55% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22°C | 55% | -120 | ▲ 19 |
| 23°C | 38% | +161 | ▼ 1 |
| 20°C | 19% | +433 | ▲ 1 |
| 21°C | 9% | +958 | ▼ 16 |
| 18°C or below | 5% | +1962 | ▼ 11 |
| 24°C | 2% | +4067 | ▼ 28 |
| 19°C | <1% | +19900 | ▼ 20 |
| 25°C | <1% | +19900 | ▼ 2 |
| 26°C | <1% | +19900 | ▼ 8 |
| 27°C | <1% | +19900 | ▼ 26 |
| 28°C or higher | <1% | +199900 | ▼ 17 |
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Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 16 Nov '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions published after the Hong Kong Observatory's initial publication of data for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution. That initial publication is the revisions cutoff. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions remain subject to the cutoff above. The only exception is a correction of a clearly erroneous print under the preceding paragraph, which will be used even if published after the cutoff.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on November 16?
As of Nov 15, 10:30 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price 22°C at 55%, about -120 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Nov 16, 2026 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on November 16?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.