California winter 2026-27 wetter or drier Odds
Polymarket traders give Wetter a 76% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Drier | 24% | +317 | — |
| Wetter | 76% | -317 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Drier" if California's statewide total precipitation for December 2026 through February 2027, according to NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), is less than 11.99 inches. If the total is 11.99 inches or more, this market will resolve to "Wetter". 11.99 inches is NCEI's published 1991-2020 average for this period. The threshold is fixed at 11.99 inches, and any change to NCEI's published average will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be NOAA NCEI Climate at a Glance, specifically the February 2027 value of the California statewide precipitation series with the timescale set to "3-Month" and the month set to "February", at https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/statewide/time-series/4/pcp/3/2. The figure will be the Precipitation figure under California Precipitation found by either hovering over the graph or in the table on the link. The resolution source reports precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 11.54), which is the precision used to resolve this market. This market will resolve on the first value NCEI publishes for December 2026 through February 2027. Any later revision to that value will not be considered. If NCEI has not published this value on Climate at a Glance by May 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will instead resolve using the most recent NCEI statewide precipitation file (climdiv-pcpnst) at https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/monitoring-content/data/us/climdiv/monthly/current/. In that file, add the December value from the row beginning “0040012026” to the January and February values from the row beginning “0040012027” (004 is the California state code, 01 is the precipitation element code, and 2026/2027 is the year; December 2026 is the last monthly column in the 0040012026 row, while January and February 2027 are the first two monthly columns in the 0040012027 row), and compare the total against 11.99 inches to 2 decimal places.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in California winter 2026-27 wetter or drier?
As of Nov 15, 10:30 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price Wetter at 76%, about -317 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Mar 16, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on California winter 2026-27 wetter or drier?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.