Best AI model on November 16 Odds
Polymarket traders give gemini-4-carbon-high a 99% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| gemini-4-carbon-high | 99% | -6567 | ▲ 1 |
| Other | 2% | +5782 | ▼ 1 |
| claude-opus-5.5-high | 1% | +9900 | — |
| gemini-4-argon-high | <1% | +14186 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “gemini-4-argon-high” would be ranked ahead of “gemini-4-carbon-high”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in Best AI model on November 16?
As of Nov 15, 10:30 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price gemini-4-carbon-high at 99%, about -6567 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Nov 17, 2026 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Best AI model on November 16?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.