Arctic sea ice max in winter 2026–2027 Odds · Dec 18, 2026 to Apr 1, 2027
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 13.8 million sq km | 96% | -2122 | — |
| Above 13.9 million sq km | 96% | -2122 | — |
| Above 14.0 million sq km | 94% | -1567 | — |
| Above 14.1 million sq km | 90% | -900 | — |
| Above 14.2 million sq km | 83% | -488 | ▼ 6 |
| Above 14.3 million sq km | 69% | -217 | ▼ 11 |
| Above 14.4 million sq km | 48% | +111 | ▼ 3 |
| Above 14.6 million sq km | 33% | +208 | ▼ 7 |
| Above 14.8 million sq km | 12% | +770 | — |
| Above 15.0 million sq km | 4% | +2757 | — |
| Above 15.2 million sq km | 3% | +3900 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
If the National Snow & Ice Data Center records a day between December 18, 2026 and April 01, 2027 where the extent of Arctic sea ice is above 13.8 million square kilometers, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Kalshi lists Apr 2, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Arctic sea ice max in winter 2026–2027?
This market trades on Kalshi. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.